Estimation of lithium-ion battery scrap generation from electric vehicles in Brazil

Among the diversity of electronic waste, lithium-ion batteries (LIB), specifically those used in the propulsion of electric vehicles (EV), are considered pollutants of significant impact. When not used and disposed of correctly, LIBs can cause damage of various types to health and the environment. The electrochemical instability inherent in these batteries releases toxic gases, risks explosion, and is always associated with a series of electronic circuits composed of various metals, including heavy metals. As a result of public policies to encourage vehicle electrification, the Brazilian EVs sector has shown high growth, even within an economic crisis scenario. In this sense, this study presents a model for estimating the production of electric vehicles and the generation of scrap LIBs, based on time series, combining battery life, car sales data, and the mileage profile covered by a car in Brazil. Around 700 thousand EVs are expected to be circulating in Brazil by 2030, with approximately 500 thousand LIBs to be converted into scrap by 2040. Finally, the delaying effect of the scrap generated from LIBs is highlighted, in line with the battery life, which, in the future, may have a very negative impact on waste management.