[Long-term trend of esophageal cancer survival rate in Qidong, 1972-2016]

Objective: To analyze the survival of esophageal cancer cases in Qidong, Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2016, and provide a basis for the prognosis evaluation and prevention of esophageal cancer patients. Methods: The data of esophageal cancer were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registration and Reporting System, and the follow-up date ended December 31, 2021. Observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) were calculated by SURV 3.01 software, and Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test was used for statistical difference comparison. Joinpoint regression model was used to conduct the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in esophageal cancer survival rate, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of esophageal cancer survival rate. Results: During 1972 to 2016, there were 5 112 new cases of esophageal cancer in Qidong. The OSR of esophageal cancer at 1, 5 and 10 years were 24.43%, 6.93% and 4.43%, and the RSR at 1, 5 and 10 years were 25.88%, 9.35% and 8.34%, respectively. Dividing 1972-2016 into 9 periods, compared with 1972-1976, the 5-year RSR from 2012-2016 increased from 4.47% to 17.85%, and the RSR trend of the 9 periods was statistically significant (χ(2)=263.43, P<0.001). The survival rate of female with esophageal cancer was slightly higher than that of male, however, there was no significant difference in RSR between male and female (χ(2)=9.40, P=0.401). The 5-OSR and 5-RSR for male were 6.73% and 9.11%, and for female were 7.37% and 9.87%, respectively. The 5-RSR for the age groups of 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and over 75 years old were 11.99%, 11.21%, 8.17% and 7.08%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in RSR among different age groups (χ(2)=98.19, P<0.001). The time trend results showed that the overall AAPC of the 5-RSR of esophageal cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 was 3.89% (t=11.98, P<0.001). The 5-RSR uptrend was consistent among different genders, and the uptrend was greater in female (AAPC=4.25% for male, and AAPC=5.72% for female, P<0.05). Furthermore, the 5-RSR of esophageal cancer in all age groups showed an upward trend, and the upward trend was statistically significant in the 55-64-year-old group (AAPC=4.23%, P<0.05) and the 65-74-year-old group (AAPC=6.82%, P<0.05), there was no statistical significance in the 45-54-year-old group (AAPC=2.17%, P>0.05) and more than 75 years old group (AAPC=1.82%, P>0.05). Survival rate prediction of esophageal cancer showed that by 2026, 5-RSR will increase to 24.79%. Conclusions: During 1972 to 2016, the overall survival rate of esophageal cancer in the whole population of Qidong has improved to a certain extent, but there is still a large room for improvement. More emphasis should be continued to strengthen on the early diagnosis and early treatment of esophageal cancer.