Association between waist circumference change and incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among Chinese...

The aim of our study was to investigate waist circumference (WC) change and the risk of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among Chinese adults. A total of 8164 participants aged > 18 years who attended health examinations with repeat measurements of WC and lung function [forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁)] from 2010 to 2019 were recruited. WC change was categorized as ≤  - 2.5%, - 2.5 to 2.5%, 2.5% to 5% and > 5% according to sex. Modified Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of WC gain and the risk of COPD. During the 10-year follow-up, a total of 917 COPD cases were identified. From baseline to follow-up, the mean FEV₁ decreased from 3.20 to 2.79L among male participants and 2.28-1.95L among female participants. Compared with participants who did not have abdominal obesity, at either, baseline or follow-up, participants with abdominal obesity of both sexes after the follow-up were associated with a greater risk of COPD regardless of abdominal obesity at baseline. The risk of incident COPD increased 19% among male participants (RR = 1.19, 95%CI = 1.04-1.48) and 14% among female participants (RR = 1.14, 95%CI = 1.01-1.40) when WC gain increased > 5% during the 10-year follow-up. The COPD risk decreased 18% among male participants with a WC change ≤  - 2.5% (RR = 0.82, 95%CI = 0.67-0.99). The risk of incident COPD was positively associated with increasing WC among Chinese adults of both sexes.