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Area of Science:

  • Digital Finance
  • Financial Inclusion
  • Retail Technology

Background:

  • Global consumer adoption of digital payments has surged.
  • Micro, small, and medium-sized retailers (MSMRs) face challenges in adopting digital payments.
  • Digital payment integration is vital for broader financial inclusion.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Identify key predictors for MSMR digital payment adoption and usage.
  • Analyze the impact of public policy, technology, and incentives on digital payments.
  • Evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal incentives on point-of-sale (POS) terminal adoption.

Main Methods:

  • Random forest estimation to identify 14 key predictors from 190 variables.
  • Conditional inference trees to analyze factor sequencing and interactions.
  • Causal forest estimation to determine the marginal effect of fiscal incentives.

Main Results:

  • Mobile payment apps increase business-to-consumer (B2C) digital transactions in low POS terminal markets.
  • Digital payments to employees and suppliers positively influence MSMR digital payment adoption.
  • Consumer financial account ownership and shadow economy size are significant predictors.
  • Fiscal incentives show a positive and significant impact on POS terminal adoption and MSMR digital payment share.

Conclusions:

  • Financial inclusion initiatives, particularly POS terminal adoption, significantly boost digital P2B payments.
  • Targeted interventions like mobile payment apps and digital B2B payment practices are effective.
  • Fiscal incentives for merchants and consumers are crucial drivers for digital payment adoption among MSMRs.