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A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard
Jacopo Selva1, Laura Sandri1, Matteo Taroni2
1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Science Advances
|November 2, 2022
Summary
Volcanic eruptions shift between high and low activity states. A new physics-informed model analyzes these changes, finding distinct eruption patterns for Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia, all currently in low-activity states.
Area of Science:
- Geosciences
- Volcanology
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- Volcanic activity is characterized by transitions between high-activity and low-activity states.
- Understanding these temporal modulations is crucial for volcanic hazard assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a novel two-regime physics-informed statistical model for interpreting volcanic eruptive activity.
- To enhance the comprehension and comparison of different volcanic systems.
- To enable homogeneous integration into multivolcano hazard assessments.
Main Methods:
- Development of a simple two-regime physics-informed statistical model.
- Application and validation of the model using the eruptive histories of three Neapolitan volcanoes: Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia.
- Analysis of temporal modulations in eruptive activity.
Main Results:
- The model satisfactorily fits the eruptive histories of Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia.
- These volcanoes exhibit distinct processes for initiating and terminating high-activity periods.
- Characteristic times and activity rates differ significantly among the studied volcanoes.
Conclusions:
- All three Neapolitan volcanoes are currently in a low-activity state.
- The probability of future eruptions is decreasing for Mt. Vesuvius, Ischia, and Campi Flegrei, respectively.
- The model provides a framework for understanding and comparing volcanic regimes and their temporal dynamics.
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