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The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
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A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard

Jacopo Selva1, Laura Sandri1, Matteo Taroni2

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Volcanic eruptions shift between high and low activity states. A new physics-informed model analyzes these changes, finding distinct eruption patterns for Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia, all currently in low-activity states.

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Area of Science:

  • Geosciences
  • Volcanology
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • Volcanic activity is characterized by transitions between high-activity and low-activity states.
  • Understanding these temporal modulations is crucial for volcanic hazard assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce a novel two-regime physics-informed statistical model for interpreting volcanic eruptive activity.
  • To enhance the comprehension and comparison of different volcanic systems.
  • To enable homogeneous integration into multivolcano hazard assessments.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a simple two-regime physics-informed statistical model.
  • Application and validation of the model using the eruptive histories of three Neapolitan volcanoes: Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia.
  • Analysis of temporal modulations in eruptive activity.

Main Results:

  • The model satisfactorily fits the eruptive histories of Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia.
  • These volcanoes exhibit distinct processes for initiating and terminating high-activity periods.
  • Characteristic times and activity rates differ significantly among the studied volcanoes.

Conclusions:

  • All three Neapolitan volcanoes are currently in a low-activity state.
  • The probability of future eruptions is decreasing for Mt. Vesuvius, Ischia, and Campi Flegrei, respectively.
  • The model provides a framework for understanding and comparing volcanic regimes and their temporal dynamics.