Untangling the effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on carbon dioxide emissions

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which was first put forward by China in late 2013, has made a significant contribution to international economic activities and inevitably reshaped the pattern of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Considering the spatial spillover effects of CO₂ emissions among countries, this paper employs spatial difference-in-differences models in order to investigate the BRI's effects on total CO₂ emissions (TCE), per capita CO₂ emissions (PCE), and CO₂ emissions intensity (CEI), respectively. The results of global Moran's I index prove the existence of spatial correlations of CO₂ emissions. The BRI's effect on TCE is significantly positive, while the effects on PCE and CEI are significantly negative, suggesting the BRI has aggravated the amount of CO₂ emissions in the partner countries, but has promoted green development by decreasing PCE and CEI. Besides, the spatial effects of control variables on CO₂ emissions are also evaluated. Some tests, including placebo test and employing alternative weight matrices, are further conducted to verify the robustness of the model. The findings indicate the BRI has facilitated green economic growth, by eventually achieving emission reduction targets in the partner countries.