Statistical models of near-accident event and pedestrian behavior at non-signalized intersections

This paper proposes an innovative framework of modeling the statistical properties of the near-accident event and pedestrian behavior at non-signalized intersections based on Poisson process and logistic regression. The first contribution of this study is that the predictive intensity model of the near-accident event is established by regarding the near-accident event as a Poisson process on space of the vehicle velocity, distance to the intersection and lateral distance to the pedestrian at the time when pedestrian appears. Besides, logistic regression is used to build the model which can predict the probability of pedestrian behavior. The two proposed models are validated in a generative simulation. The simulated pedestrian behavior data is generated by the proposed models and compared with the real data. The real data set is from the drive recorder data base of Smart Mobility Research Center (SMRC) at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology. Accident and near-accident data has been collected in the city streets with an image-captured drive recorder mounted on a taxi since 2006. The findings in this study are expected to be useful for constructions of traffic simulators or safety control design which considers the pedestrian-vehicle interaction.