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The projections of global and regional rheumatic heart disease burden from 2020 to 2030
Yingying Hu1,2, Zijia Tong3,4, Xuewei Huang1,2
1Department of Cardiology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Insights
Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) poses a severe global health threat, particularly to young females. Projections indicate rising prevalence and heart failure cases, necessitating targeted interventions.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Preventive Medicine
Background:
- Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a major preventable cause of death and disability in young individuals globally.
- RHD causes an estimated 320,000 deaths annually worldwide.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the future disease burden of RHD from 2020 to 2030.
- To describe the projected epidemiological characteristics of RHD by region, sex, and age.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model.
- Employed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019.
Main Results:
- Global RHD prevalence and incidence are projected to increase, with prevalence reaching 559.88 per 100,000 by 2030.
- While mortality rates may decline, total deaths and heart failure cases (2,922,840 by 2030) are expected to rise.
- Females and young populations exhibit higher RHD prevalence, with the elderly facing a greater burden of RHD-related death and heart failure.
Conclusions:
- The RHD burden will remain significant in the next decade, with regional, sex, and age disparities.
- Targeted strategies are crucial for RHD management, focusing on females and young individuals in developing regions.
Background:
Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains the leading cause of preventable death and disability in children and young adults, killing an estimated 320,000 individuals worldwide yearly.
Materials And Methods:
We utilized the Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model to project the change in disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Then we described the projected epidemiological characteristics of RHD by region, sex, and age.
Results:
The global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of RHD increased from 1990 to 2019, and ASPR will increase to 559.88 per 100,000 population by 2030. The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of RHD will continue declining, while the projected death cases will increase. Furthermore, ASPR and cases of RHD-associated HF will continue rising, and there will be 2,922,840 heart failure (HF) cases in 2030 globally. Female subjects will still be the dominant population compared to male subjects, and the ASPR of RHD and the ASPR of RHD-associated HF in female subjects will continue to increase from 2020 to 2030. Young people will have the highest ASPR of RHD among all age groups globally, while the elderly will bear a greater death and HF burden.
Conclusion:
In the following decade, the RHD burden will remain severe. There are large variations in the trend of RHD burden by region, sex, and age. Targeted and effective strategies are needed for the management of RHD, particularly in female subjects and young people in developing regions.
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