Forecasting crew fatigue risk on international flights under different policies in China during the COVID-19 outbreak

To predict the risk of fatigue for flight crews on international flights under the new operating model policy of the civil aviation exemption approach policy during the COVID-19 outbreak, and to provide scientific validation methods and ideas for the exemption approach policy. This paper uses the change in flight crew alertness as a validation indicator, and then constructs an alertness assessment model to predict flight crew fatigue risk based on the SAFTE model theory. Then, the corresponding in-flight rotation plans for the flight is designed according to the exemption approach policy issued by the CAAC, the CCAR-121 part policy and the real operational requirements of the airline, respectively, and finally the simulation results is compared by comparing the pilot alertness and cockpit crew alertness under the exemption approach policy and the CCAR-121 part policy with the flight duration. The results show that the flight crew alertness level for the flight in-flight rotation plan simulation designed under the exemption approach policy is higher or closer to the pilot alertness level for operational flights under the CCAR-121 Part policy. This validates the reasonableness and safety of the exemption approach policy issued by the CAAC to meet the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, and provides scientific support and solutions for fatigue monitoring and management.