Cropland nitrous oxide emissions exceed the emissions of RCP 2.6: A global spatial analysis

Nitrous oxide (N₂O), as a potent greenhouse gas, must be limited to prevent the global temperature increasing by >2 °C. Cropland is the largest source of anthropogenic N₂O emissions; however, earlier estimates for emissions and their exceedances still remain uncertainties. Here, we used a spatially explicit model to estimate cropland N₂O emission in 2014 by refined grid-level crop-specific EFs and considered the background emission. We also sought to determine where N₂O emissions exceed the "boundary" through analysis of spatial data from representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6. The global cropland N₂O emission was 2.92 ± 0.59 Tg N yr^-1, which far exceeds the 0.82 Tg N yr^-1 boundary, over 90 % of cropland areas exceeded the boundary. Western Europe, Southeastern China, Pakistan, and the Ganges Plain exceeded the boundary by >2 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1. The boundary exceedances showed a positive linear response with respect to total cropland emission and a quadratic response to GDP per capita at the country level. Our study highlights the necessity of accurate estimations of spatial variations in cropland N₂O emissions and evaluation of exceedances, to facilitate the development of more effective mitigation measures in different regions.