Riparian areas as a conservation priority under climate change

Identifying climatic refugia is important for long-term conservation planning under climate change. Riparian areas have the potential to provide climatic refugia for wildlife, but literature remains limited, especially for plants. This study was conducted with the purpose of identifying climatic refugia of plant biodiversity in the portion of the Mekong River Basin located in Xishuangbanna, China. We first predicted the current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential distribution of 50 threatened woody species in Xishuangbanna by using an ensemble of small models, then stacked the predictions for individual species to derive spatial biodiversity patterns within each 10 × 10 km grid cell. We then identified the top 17 % of the areas for spatial biodiversity patterns as biodiversity hotspots, with climatic refugia defined as areas that remained as biodiversity hotspots over time. Stepwise regression and linear correlation were applied to analyze the environmental correlations with spatial biodiversity patterns and the relationships between climatic refugia and river distribution, respectively. Our results showed potential upward and northward shifts in threatened woody species, with range contractions and expansions predicted. The spatial biodiversity patterns shift from southeast to northwest, and were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and elevation heterogeneity. Climatic refugia under climate change were related closely to river distribution in Xishuangbanna, with riparian areas identified that could provide climatic refugia. These refugial zones are recommended as priority conservation areas for mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Our study confirmed that riparian areas could act as climatic refugia for plants and emphasizes the conservation prioritization of riparian areas within river basins for protecting biodiversity under climate change.