A Novel Prognostic Model for Patients with Primary Gastric Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Primary gastric diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (PG-DLBCL) is a common phenotype of extranodal non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). This research aims to identify a model for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in PG-DLBCL.

A total of 1716 patients diagnosed with PG-DLBCL between 1975 and 2017 were obtained from the SEER database and further randomly divided into the training and validating cohorts at a ratio of 7 : 3. Univariate and multivariate cox analyses were conducted to determine significant variables for the construction of nomogram. The performance of the model was then assessed by the concordance index (C-index), the calibration plot, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Multivariate analysis revealed that age, race, insurance status, Ann Arbor stage, marital status, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy all showed a significant association with OS and CSS. These characteristics were applied to build a nomogram. In the training cohort, the discrimination of nomogram for OS and CSS prediction was excellent (C-index = 0.764, 95% CI, 0.744-0.784 and C-index = 0.756, 95% CI, 0.732-0.780). The AUC of the nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year OS was 0.779 and 0.784 and CSS was 0.765 and 0.772. Similar results were also observed in the internal validation set.

We have successfully established a novel nomogram for predicting OS and CSS in PG-DLBCL patients with good accuracy, which can help physicians to quickly and accurately complete the evaluation of survival probability, risk stratification, and therapeutic strategy at diagnosis.