A Novel Prediction Model of Acute Kidney Injury Based on Combined Blood Variables in STEMI

Development of acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with poor prognosis in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

This study sought to investigate whether a combination of pre-procedural blood tests could predict the incidence of AKI in patients with STEMI.

A total of 908 consecutive Japanese patients with STEMI who underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention within 48 hours of symptom onset were recruited and divided into derivation (n = 617) and validation (n = 291) cohorts. A risk score model was created based on a combination of parameters assessed on routine blood tests on admission.

In the derivation cohort, multivariate analysis showed that the following 4 variables were significantly associated with AKI: blood sugar ≥200 mg/dL (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07), high-sensitivity troponin I >1.6 ng/mL (upper limit of normal ×50) (OR: 2.43), albumin ≤3.5 mg/dL (OR: 2.85), and estimated glomerular filtration rate <45 mL/min/1.73 m² (OR: 2.64). Zero to 4 points were given according to the number of those factors. Incremental risk scores were significantly associated with a higher incidence of AKI in both cohorts (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis of risk models showed adequate discrimination between patients with and without AKI (derivation cohort, area under the curve: 0.754; 95% confidence interval: 0.733-0.846; validation cohort, area under the curve: 0.754; 95% confidence interval: 0.644-0.839).

Our novel laboratory-based model might be useful for early prediction of the post-procedural risk of AKI in patients with STEMI.