Pandemic And Recession Effects On Mortality In The US During The First Year Of COVID-19

There were almost 700,000 excess deaths in the US from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, resulting from two often counterbalancing mechanisms: those predicted by changes in unemployment rates occurring during this period, referred to here as the "recession effect," and those predicted by the "pandemic effect," which reflects direct consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19, accompanying impacts on health and medical care, and other changes in mortality not caused by greater joblessness. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this study decomposed total mortality in this period into pandemic and recession effects, with additional estimates by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and fourteen causes. Although the pandemic effect increased many types of mortality, the recession effect reduced most types of mortality. Without the recession effect, there would have been nearly 40,000 more deaths than actually occurred. However, there were disparate impacts, particularly for external causes. Vehicular and alcohol-related fatalities and homicides rose because of strong pandemic effects. In contrast, the recession effect accounted for a greater share of the rise in drug mortality. Offsetting pandemic and recession effects resulted in a decrease in the number of suicides. Understanding these diverse impacts provides useful lessons for policy efforts to mitigate the current and future health pandemics.