Spleen stiffness can predict liver decompensation and survival in patients with cirrhosis

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has been predicting liver decompensation and survival in cirrhotics. The aim of our study was to investigate if spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) by 2D shear-wave elastography could predict better the probability of decompensation and mortality, compared with LSM and other parameters.

Consecutive cirrhotic patients were recruited between 1/2017 and 12/2021. LSM and SSM were performed at baseline and epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. Clinical events were recorded every 3 months.

Totally, 177 patients were followed for a mean period of 31 ± 18 months. In Cox regression analysis, only SSM was independently associated with the probability of decompensation (HR: 1.063, 95% CI: 1.009-1.120; P = 0.021), offering an AUROC of 0.710 (P = 0.003) for predicting 1-year liver decompensation (NPV: 81.1% for the cut-off point of 37 kPa). The occurrence of death/liver transplantation was independently associated only with higher SSM (HR: 1.043; 95% CI:1.003-1.084; P = 0.034). The AUROC of SSM for predicting 1-year death/liver transplantation was 0.72 (P = 0.006) (NPV: 95% for the cut-off of 38.8 kPa). The performance of SSM to predict the 1-year death/liver transplantation increased in high-risk patients (CTP: B/C plus MELD >10 plus LSM > 20 kPa), giving an AUROC of 0.80 (P < 0.001). Only 1/26 high-risk patients with SSM < 38.8 kPa died during the first year of follow-up (NPV: 96.4%).

SSM was the only factor independently associated with the probability of decompensation and occurrence of death, showing better diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of 1-year decompensation or death compared with LSM and MELD score.