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Causal effect of PM1 on morbidity of cause-specific respiratory diseases based on a negative control exposure
Shiyun Lv1, Xiangtong Liu1, Zhiwei Li1
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, 100069, China.
Background:
Extensive studies have linked PM2.5 and PM10 with respiratory diseases (RD). However, few is known about causal association between PM1 and morbidity of RD. We aimed to assess the causal effects of PM1 on cause-specific RD.
Methods:
Hospital admission data were obtained for RD during 2014 and 2019 in Beijing, China. Negative control exposure and extreme gradient boosting with SHapley Additive exPlanation was used to explore the causality and contribution between PM1 and RD. Stratified analysis by gender, age, and season was conducted.
Results:
A total of 1,183,591 admissions for RD were recorded. Per interquartile range (28 μg/m3) uptick in concentration of PM1 corresponded to a 3.08% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.66%-4.52%] increment in morbidity of total RD. And that was 4.47% (95% CI: 2.46%-6.52%) and 0.15% (95% CI: 1.44%-1.78%), for COPD and asthma, respectively. Significantly positive causal associations were observed for PM1 with total RD and COPD. Females and the elderly had higher effects on total RD, COPD, and asthma only in the warm months (Z = 3.03, P = 0.002; Z = 4.01, P < 0.001; Z = 3.92, P < 0.001; Z = 2.11, P = 0.035; Z = 2.44, P = 0.015). Contribution of PM1 ranked first, second and second for total RD, COPD, and asthma among air pollutants.
Conclusion:
PM1 was causally associated with increased morbidity of total RD and COPD, but not causally associated with asthma. Females and the elderly were more vulnerable to PM1-associated effects on RD.
Insights
Particulate Matter 1 (PM1) exposure is causally linked to increased respiratory disease (RD) and COPD hospitalizations. Females and the elderly are more vulnerable, especially during warmer months.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Pulmonary Medicine
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Previous research established links between PM2.5 and PM10 with respiratory diseases (RD).
- The causal association between fine particulate matter (PM1) and RD morbidity remains less understood.
- This study investigates the causal effects of PM1 on cause-specific RD.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the causal relationship between PM1 exposure and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases.
- To determine the impact of PM1 on specific respiratory conditions like COPD and asthma.
- To identify demographic and seasonal factors influencing PM1's effect on RD.
Main Methods:
- Utilized hospital admission data for RD in Beijing from 2014-2019.
- Employed negative control exposure and extreme gradient boosting with SHapley Additive exPlanation (XGBoost-SHAP) for causality assessment.
- Conducted stratified analyses based on gender, age, and season.
Main Results:
- A 28 μg/m³ increase in PM1 concentration correlated with a 3.08% rise in total RD admissions.
- PM1 showed a significant causal association with total RD (3.08%) and COPD (4.47%), but not asthma (0.15%).
- Females and the elderly exhibited heightened vulnerability to PM1 during warmer months.
Conclusions:
- PM1 is causally linked to increased morbidity for total RD and COPD.
- No causal association was found between PM1 and asthma.
- Vulnerable populations, including females and the elderly, face greater risks from PM1 exposure, particularly in warmer seasons.
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