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Association Between Weather Parameters and SARS-CoV-2 Confirmed Cases in Two South African Cities
Samuel Ogunjo1, Adeyemi Olusola2,3, Israel Orimoloye4
1Department of Physics Federal University of Technology Akure Nigeria.
Geohealth
|November 9, 2022
Summary
Particulate matter significantly impacts COVID-19 spread in South African cities. Stricter lockdowns reduced PM2.5 levels, and particulate matter predicted cases in Pretoria after a 7-day lag.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 mitigation strategies are crucial globally.
- Environmental factors like air pollution may influence disease transmission.
- Understanding these links can inform public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between environmental factors (temperature, humidity, particulate matter) and COVID-19 spread.
- To assess the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on air quality in Pretoria and Cape Town, South Africa.
- To determine if particulate matter is a predictor of COVID-19 cases.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of COVID-19 case data and air quality data (PM2.5) from the Purple Air Network.
- Statistical analysis to explore correlations between environmental variables and COVID-19 cases.
- Causality testing to evaluate particulate matter as a predictor of COVID-19 cases with time lags.
Main Results:
- Significant reductions in PM2.5 levels were observed during stricter lockdown levels (Level 5) compared to no lockdown (Level 0): 26.73% in Cape Town and 43.66% in Pretoria.
- A significant relationship was found between particulate matter levels and COVID-19 cases in both cities.
- Particulate matter was identified as a significant predictor of COVID-19 cases in Pretoria, with effects observed 7 days or more after exposure.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 lockdown measures effectively reduced air pollution (PM2.5).
- Particulate matter is a significant environmental factor associated with COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
- Air quality monitoring and management should be considered in public health strategies for infectious diseases.
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