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Factors affecting bus accident severity in Thailand: A multinomial logit model
Wiriya Mahikul1, Ongvisit Aiyasuwan2, Pashanun Thanartthanaboon2
1Princess Srisavangavadhana College of Medicine, Chulabhorn Royal Academy, Bangkok, Thailand.
Bus accident severity in Thailand is linked to driver behavior and environmental factors. Drowsy driving and not following traffic rules significantly increase injury and fatality risks, especially on sloped roads in northern Thailand.
Area of Science:
- Road safety research
- Transportation safety
- Accident analysis
Background:
- Bus accidents pose a significant threat in Thailand, with high injury and fatality rates.
- Previous research has not comprehensively analyzed factors influencing bus accident severity in Thailand.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and evaluate risk factors associated with bus accident severity in Thailand.
- To categorize accidents into non-injury, injury, and fatality levels for detailed analysis.
Main Methods:
- A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from 2010-2019.
- A multinomial logit model was employed to assess factors influencing accident severity.
- Risk factors were analyzed across three categories: bus driver, crash characteristics, and environmental characteristics.
Main Results:
- Driving on sloped roads, drowsy driving, and driving in the wrong direction were significant factors increasing injury probability.
- Drowsy driving and drivers not obeying traffic rules significantly increased fatality probability.
- Accidents in northern Thailand showed a higher risk of fatality, particularly linked to not following traffic rules.
Conclusions:
- Driver behavior (drowsy driving, rule-breaking) and environmental factors (sloped roads) are critical determinants of bus accident severity in Thailand.
- Targeted road safety programs focusing on sloped roads in northern Thailand and public awareness campaigns on drowsy driving and traffic rule adherence are recommended.
- Implementing these interventions can potentially reduce the incidence of both injury and fatal bus accidents.
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