Utilizing machine learning algorithms to predict subject genetic mutation class from in silico models of neuronal...

Epilepsy is the fourth-most common neurological disorder, affecting an estimated 50 million patients globally. Nearly 40% of patients have uncontrolled seizures yet incur 80% of the cost. Anti-epileptic drugs commonly result in resistance and reversion to uncontrolled drug-resistant epilepsy and are often associated with significant adverse effects. This has led to a trial-and-error system in which physicians spend months to years attempting to identify the optimal therapeutic approach.

To investigate the potential clinical utility from the context of optimal therapeutic prediction of characterizing cellular electrophysiology. It is well-established that genomic data alone can sometimes be predictive of effective therapeutic approach. Thus, to assess the predictive power of electrophysiological data, machine learning strategies are implemented to predict a subject's genetically defined class in an in silico model using brief electrophysiological recordings obtained from simulated neuronal networks.

A dynamic network of isogenic neurons is modeled in silico for 1-s for 228 dynamically modeled patients falling into one of three categories: healthy, general sodium channel gain of function, or inhibitory sodium channel loss of function. Data from previous studies investigating the electrophysiological and cellular properties of neurons in vitro are used to define the parameters governing said models. Ninety-two electrophysiological features defining the nature and consistency of network connectivity, activity, waveform shape, and complexity are extracted for each patient network and t-tests are used for feature selection for the following machine learning algorithms: Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, Gaussian Naïve Bayes Classifier, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree. Finally, their performance in accurately predicting which genetic category the subjects fall under is assessed.

Several machine learning algorithms excel in using electrophysiological data from isogenic neurons to accurately predict genetic class with a Gaussian Naïve Bayes Classifier predicting healthy, gain of function, and overall, with the best accuracy, area under the curve, and F1. The Gradient Boosting Decision Tree performs the best for loss of function models indicated by the same metrics.

It is possible for machine learning algorithms to use electrophysiological data to predict clinically valuable metrics such as optimal therapeutic approach, especially when combining several models.