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Shrinking Working-Age Population and Food Demand: Evidence from Rural China.

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China's aging population impacts food demand. As the working-age population (WAP) shrinks, rural residents show increased income elasticity for essential foods like fruits, vegetables, and animal products.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Economics
  • Demography
  • Food Policy

Background:

  • China's population is rapidly aging, leading to a declining proportion of the working-age population (WAP).
  • Understanding shifts in food demand is crucial for agricultural planning and economic stability in rural China.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate food demand elasticity in rural China under varying WAP proportions.
  • To analyze how demographic shifts influence food consumption patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a two-stage budgeting quadratic almost-ideal demand system (QUAIDS) framework.
  • Estimated income elasticities for key food categories (fruits/vegetables, animal products, oils/fats, grains).

Main Results:

  • Income elasticities for rural demand were: fruits/vegetables (0.73), animal products (0.65), oils/fats (0.55), and grains (0.48).
  • Income elasticity increased as the household WAP proportion decreased, indicating a shift in consumption priorities.

Conclusions:

  • Demographic changes, specifically an aging population, significantly affect rural food demand patterns in China.
  • Findings can inform equilibrium models for forecasting food supply and demand, aiding policy development.