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Probabilistic mathematical modelling to predict the red cell phenotyped donor panel size.

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Australian blood services need more phenotyped red cells. Mathematical modeling shows 38% of donors require genotyping and 35% phenotyping to meet demand, achievable within 3-12 years with increased testing.

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Area of Science:

  • Transfusion Medicine
  • Biostatistics
  • Health Services Management

Background:

  • Declining red cell demand in Australia contrasts with rising need for phenotyped matched units.
  • Ensuring adequate supply of specific red cell phenotypes is critical for patient safety and transfusion efficacy.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a probabilistic model for optimizing the Australian donor panel for extended antigen typing.
  • To determine the required percentage of genotyped and phenotyped donors to meet current demand.
  • To estimate the timeline for achieving an optimally phenotyped donor panel.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized mathematical modeling based on Multinomial distributions and historical blood request data.
  • Simulated donor panel scenarios to achieve at least 95% success in meeting demand.
  • Focused on uncommon, but not rare, antigen combinations for extended typing.

Main Results:

  • Predicted 38% (205,000 donors) require genotyping and 35% (188,000 donors) require phenotyping to meet demand.
  • Achieving genotyping target within 12 years with 5% weekly donor genotyping.
  • Phenotyping target achievable in 8 years at current rates, or 3 years with 9% weekly testing.

Conclusions:

  • Mathematical modeling provides a data-driven approach to optimize donor panel composition.
  • Strategic increases in genotyping and phenotyping are necessary to meet future transfusion needs.
  • Informed investment decisions for Lifeblood to achieve an optimal donor panel efficiently.