Is Liver Transplant Justified at Any MELD Score?

Assessing the survival benefit of transplantation in patients with end-stage liver disease is critical in guiding the decision-making process for liver allocation. Previous studies established increased mortality risk for those transplanted below Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 18 compared with candidates who remained on the waitlist; however, improved outcomes of liver transplantation and a changing landscape in the donor supply warrant re-evaluation of this idea.

Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database, we analyzed 160 290 candidates who were waitlisted for liver transplantation within MELD cohorts. We compared patients who were transplanted in a MELD cohort with those listed but not transplanted in that listed MELD cohort with an intent-to-treat analysis.

Those transplanted at a MELD between 6 and 11 showed a 31% reduction in adjusted mortality (HR = 0.69 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.75]; P < 0.001) compared with the intent-to-treat cohort in a Cox multivariate regression. This mortality benefit increased to a 37% adjusted reduction for those transplanted at MELD between 12 and 14 (HR = 0.63 [95% CI, 0.60-0.66]; P < 0.001) and a 46% adjusted reduction for those transplanted at a MELD between 15 and 17 (HR = 0.54 [95% CI, 0.52-0.57]; P < 0.001), effects that remained in sensitivity analyses excluding patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, encephalopathy, ascites, and variceal bleeds. A multivariate analysis of patients transplanted at MELD < 18 found younger age and cold ischemia time were protective, whereas older age, lower functional status, and socioeconomic factors increased mortality risk.

These findings challenge the current practice of deferring liver transplants below a particular MELD score by demonstrating survival benefits for most transplant patients at the lowest MELD scores and providing insight into who benefits within these subgroups.