Surrogacy analysis of intermediate end-points for overall survival in randomized controlled trials of...

Treatment of malignant tumors, such as rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS), can improve overall survival (OS). It is time-consuming and expensive for patients to obtain benefits from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with OS as the primary end-point. Therefore, another surrogate end-point is necessary; however, there is no report on the surrogacy analysis of RMS. In this study, we performed a systematic review of RCTs, involving patients with newly diagnosed RMS, and 11 RCTs were identified. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the surrogacy of intermediate end-points for OS. The correlations between surrogate end-points and OS were investigated using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (ρ). The coefficient of determination (R²) was employed to measure the strength of the association. A total of 5183 patients were randomly allocated to 34 treatment groups. A marginal correlation (R² = 0.281, ρ = 0.445) between the hazard ratios (HRs) for event-free survival (EFS) and OS was observed. In patients with localized RMS, the EFS HR had a weaker correlation with OS HR in the sensitivity analysis than that in the primary analysis. Overall, the surrogacy of EFS for OS cannot be confirmed.