Climate service driven adaptation may alleviate the impacts of climate change in agriculture

Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021-2040, ranges from -7.8% to -5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agro-climate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability.