Bending the Cardiovascular Event Curve by Evaluating the Potential Impact of Achieving Low-Density Lipoprotein...

Guidelines recommend aggressive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, the recommended threshold of LDL-C ≤70 mg/dL is often not achieved. We used data from the Duke University Health System electronic health record to characterize patterns of lipid levels and lipid management in patients with ASCVD to estimate the number of clinical events that could be prevented by achieving LDL-C ≤70 mg/dL . A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict the 1-year composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary revascularization and was validated through bootstrapping. The number needed to treat to prevent an event was then determined. Among 56,230 patients with ASCVD, the median (quartile 1, quartile 3) age was 68.6 years (59.9, 76.2), 47% were women, and 27% were non-Hispanic Black. LDL-C was >70 mg/dL in 39,566 of patients (70%); these patients were more frequently female (51% vs 36%), non-Hispanic Black (28% vs 23%), and less frequently on statin therapy (67% vs 91%) than those with LDL-C ≤70 mg/dL . A predictive model with reasonable discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.760 to 0.77) and calibration (slope 0.99) determined that if the overall population achieved an LDL-C ≤70 mg/dL, 734 clinical events (455 myocardial infarctions, 186 strokes, and 93 coronary revascularizations) could be prevented in a year. Achieving LDL-C ≤70 mg/dL in patients with ASCVD across a health system could prevent significant clinical events within a single year. In conclusion, this study quantifies the potential benefit of a system-wide effort to achieve guideline-based LDL-C goals.