Neighborhood Factors Associated with COVID-19 Cases in California

There is a need to assess neighborhood-level factors driving COVID-19 disparities across racial and ethnic groups.

To use census tract-level data to investigate neighborhood-level factors contributing to racial and ethnic group-specific COVID-19 case rates in California.

Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models were used to identify neighborhood-level factors associated with COVID-19 cases. In separate sequential models for Hispanic, Black, and Asian, we characterized the associations between neighborhood factors on neighborhood COVID-19 cases. Subanalyses were conducted on neighborhoods with majority Hispanic, Black, and Asian residents to identify factors that might be unique to these neighborhoods. Geographically weighted regression using a quasi-Poisson model was conducted to identify regional differences.

All COVID-19 cases and tests reported through January 31, 2021, to the California Department of Public Health. Neighborhood-level data from census tracts were obtained from American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2015-2019), United States Census (2010), and United States Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The neighborhood factors associated with COVID-19 case rate were racial and ethnic composition, age, limited English proficiency (LEP), income, household size, and population density. LEP had the largest influence on the positive association between proportion of Hispanic residents and COVID-19 cases (- 2.1% change). This was also true for proportion of Asian residents (- 1.8% change), but not for the proportion of Black residents (- 0.1% change). The influence of LEP was strongest in areas of the Bay Area, Los Angeles, and San Diego.

Neighborhood-level contextual drivers of COVID-19 burden differ across racial and ethnic groups.