Energy and stochastic economic assessment for distributed power generation from Manipueira biogas

Cassava is a staple food in many countries, and this food source differs from other crops in that its processing generates a highly polluting and toxic residue (manipueira) that requires further treatment. The present study analyzed the economic feasibility of anaerobic digestion of manipueira for producing clean electricity through distributed generation (DG) while simultaneously eliminating toxic compounds. This eliminates the toxic residues. For this, an approach for the sizing of DG plants from manipueira biogas was presented, a non-trivial task which is not widespread in the literature. For two plants with different capacities, a deterministic economic analysis was carried out based on the criteria of Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Discounted Payback. Finally, the project risk was assessed through a sensitivity and stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation. The empirical verification was done on Brazilian data. When considering the NPV criterion, the results indicate a feasibility probability of 9.25% and 81.21% for scenarios 01 and 02, respectively. The results show that scale gains were important in reducing the impact of the investment and, at the same time, the larger scale of the project makes the cost of capital more relevant to the result. These findings show the need for subsidies for the investment, in addition to the promotion of specific credit lines that enable small-scale generation, or that can improve results in greater capacity.