A Predictive Machine Learning Tool for Asthma Exacerbations: Results from a 12-Week, Open-Label Study Using an...

Machine learning models informed by sensor data inputs have the potential to provide individualized predictions of asthma deterioration. This study aimed to determine if data from an integrated digital inhaler could be used to develop a machine learning model capable of predicting impending exacerbations.

Adult patients with poorly controlled asthma were enrolled in a 12-week, open-label study using ProAir^® Digihaler^®, an electronic multi-dose dry powder inhaler (eMDPI) with integrated sensors, as reliever medication (albuterol, 90 µg/dose; 1-2 inhalations every 4 hours, as needed). Throughout the study, the eMDPI recorded inhaler use, peak inspiratory flow (PIF), inhalation volume, inhalation duration, and time to PIF. A model predictive of impending exacerbations was generated by applying machine learning techniques to data downloaded from the inhalers, together with clinical and demographic information. The generated model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic area under curve (ROC AUC) analysis.

Of 360 patients included in the predictive analysis, 64 experienced a total of 78 exacerbations. Increased albuterol use preceded exacerbations; the mean number of inhalations in the 24-hours preceding an exacerbation was 7.3 (standard deviation 17.3). The machine learning model, using gradient-boosting trees with data from the eMDPI and baseline patient characteristics, predicted an impending exacerbation over the following 5 days with an ROC AUC of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-0.90). The feature of the model with the highest weight was the mean number of daily inhalations during the 4 days prior to the day the prediction was made.

A machine learning model to predict impending asthma exacerbations using data from the eMDPI was successfully developed. This approach may support a shift from reactive care to proactive, preventative, and personalized management of chronic respiratory diseases.