Providing a detailed estimate of mortality using a simulation-based collision risk model

Area of Science:

• Marine renewable energy
• Environmental impact assessment
• Ecological modeling

Background:

• Tidal energy converters (TECs) are a key component of the green energy mix.
• Collision risk between marine animals and TECs poses a significant environmental concern and barrier to development.
• Assessing the severity of collisions, not just their frequency, is crucial for understanding population-level impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and demonstrate a novel simulation-based collision risk model for estimating animal mortality from TECs.
• To incorporate collision speed and location on the animal as key variables in mortality prediction.
• To advance the accuracy and comprehensiveness of collision risk assessments for marine renewable energy projects.

Main Methods:

• Developed a simulation-based collision risk model for assessing animal-device interactions.
• Extracted collision speed and precise location of impact on the animal (e.g., seal) during simulated encounters with a horizontal axis turbine.
• Quantified mortality probabilities based on collision speed and the anatomical location of impact.

Main Results:

• The model successfully estimates mortality probabilities by integrating collision speed and location.
• Hypothetical scenarios demonstrated that impacts on specific body parts (e.g., head) can be predicted as fatal.
• The model provides a quantitative method to predict the proportion of fatal collision events.

Conclusions:

• This novel model is the first to incorporate collision speed and location for estimating mortality probability.
• The developed methods offer a more comprehensive approach to collision risk modeling for TEC consenting.
• The model's framework is adaptable for assessing risks associated with other renewable energy devices and species, such as wind turbines and birds.