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Simulating future land use by coupling ecological security patterns and multiple scenarios.

Wenbin Nie1, Bin Xu1, Fan Yang1

  • 1College of Landscape and Architecture, Zhejiang A&F University, 311300 Hangzhou, China.

The Science of the Total Environment
|November 18, 2022
PubMed
Summary

This study developed an ecological security patterns (ESPs) and multiple scenarios (MSs) land use model. The findings show that prioritizing ecological protection or balanced development effectively reduces ecological destruction.

Keywords:
Ecological security patternLand use optimizationMulti-scenario simulationPLUS modelUrban expansion

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Area of Science:

  • * Ecological modeling and spatial planning
  • * Environmental science and sustainable land management

Background:

  • * Land use change poses significant threats to ecological integrity.
  • * Integrating ecological security patterns (ESPs) into land use planning is crucial for sustainable development.

Purpose of the Study:

  • * To develop and apply an integrated land use simulation model incorporating ESPs and multiple scenarios (MSs).
  • * To evaluate the effectiveness of different land use policies on ecological protection and economic development.
  • * To identify priority areas for urban development within ecological constraints.

Main Methods:

  • * Developed a novel ESP-MS-PLUS model integrating ecosystem services evaluation and circuit theory for ESP construction.
  • * Simulated four land use and land cover change (LUCC) scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), Priority Urban Development (PUD), Priority Ecological Protection (PEP), and Balanced Urban-Ecological (BUE).
  • * Coupled ecological constraints (red lines, waters, ESPs) with the four LUCC scenarios for simulation and analysis.

Main Results:

  • * The PEP and BUE scenarios demonstrated significant potential in mitigating the rate and extent of ecological degradation.
  • * Simulation results indicated that specific environmental functional regions could be designated for urban development without compromising ecological goals.
  • * Landscape metrics analysis revealed differential impacts of scenarios on spatial patterns and ecological processes.

Conclusions:

  • * The developed ESP-MS-PLUS model offers a practical framework for optimizing land use planning with ecological considerations.
  • * Policies prioritizing ecological protection or balanced development are more effective in ensuring long-term environmental sustainability.
  • * The study provides a mechanism for informed land management decisions, balancing economic growth with ecological security.