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Updated: Aug 20, 2025

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
[The course on the longevity of the population: the problem and the prospect.]
C I Ildarhanova1, A A Ibragimova1
1Family and Demography Center of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, 36a Levo-Bulachnaya str., Kazan 420111, Russian Federation,
Abstract:
The demographic situation of the Russian Federation is characterized by an aging population, which is a new challenge to achieve active and healthy longevity. The purpose of the study is to identify the factors influencing the increase in active longevity based on the results of the analysis of statistical data on the proportion of people over 60 years of age and life expectancy and sociological studies. On the basis of official statistics, the analysis of life expectancy, the proportion of people over 60 years old was carried out. The obtained data of the sociological study revealed that in order for the Russian Federation to follow the course of increasing active and healthy longevity, it must focus on the determinants of socio-economic character. On the basis of the age-shifting method, the forecast of the proportion of people over 60 years old was carried out (using the example of one of the regions of the Russian Federation). The Center for Family and Demography of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan has developed recommendations for achieving active and healthy longevity, which are presented in the annual Demographic report of the Republic of Tatarstan, by improving health and reducing mortality.
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