Temporal variations and trends prediction of water quality during 2010-2019 in the middle Yangtze River, China

Water quality plays an important role in river habitats. This study revealed the annual and seasonal variations and trend prediction of water quality in the middle Yangtze River after the third impoundment stage of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Multivariate statistical methods including principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA), Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests, discriminant analysis (DA), rescaled range (R/S) analysis, and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment Water Quality Index (CCME-WQI) were used. Herein, eight water quality constituents including pH, electrical conductivity (EC), chloride (Cl), dissolved oxygen (DO), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃N), total phosphorus (TP), water temperature (T), and permanganate index (CODmn) were monthly monitored in the Jiujiang hydrological transaction during 2010-2019. The information of eight water quality constituents, related to salinity, nutrient status, and oxidation reactions efficiency, was extracted. Water quality status remained as fair-good during 2010-2019 based on the results of CCME-WQI, with the seasonal significance ranked as T > DO > Cl > pH > EC > TP > NH₃N > CODmn. In the future decade, annual average T was predicted to continue to increase although it might decrease in the wet season. EC was predicted to continue increasing annually especially in the wet season while Cl might decrease. NH₃N and TP might maintain a significant decreasing trend in the future wet and dry seasons. DO maintained significantly increasing especially in the future dry seasons, whereas CODmn will continue to decrease annually and seasonally. The continued alkalization trend of waterbody was predicted, which is more significant in the wet season. The results provide helpful references for the ecological protection of the middle Yangtze River.