Long-term effect of intermediate particulate matter (PM_1-2.5) on incident asthma among middle-aged and elderly...

There is insufficient evidence about the long-term effects of intermediate particulate matter (PM_1-2.5) on asthma development in adults aged 45 years and above. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between long-term exposure to PM_1-2.5 and the incidence of asthma in adults aged 45 years and above.

A cohort study based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database was conducted to investigate the long-term effects of PM_1-2.5 on self-reported asthma incidence in adults aged 45 years and above in China from 2011 to 2018. The PM concentrations were estimated using a high-resolution (1 km²) satellite-based spatiotemporal model. A covariate-adjusted generalized linear mixed model was used to analyze the relationship between long-term exposure to PM_1-2.5 and the incidence of asthma. Effect modifications and sensitivity analysis were conducted.

After a 7-year follow-up, 103 (1.61 %) of the 6400 participants developed asthma. Each 10 μg/m³ increment in the 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year moving average concentrations of PM_1-2.5 corresponded to a 1.82 [95 % confidence interval (CI):1.11-2.98], 1.95 (95 % CI: 1.24-3.07), 1.95 (95 % CI: 1.26-3.03) and 1.88 (95 % CI: 1.26-2.81) fold risk for incident asthma, respectively. A significant multiplicative interaction was observed between socioeconomic level and long-term exposure to PM_1-2.5. Stratified analysis showed that smokers and those with lower socioeconomic levels were at higher risk of incident asthma related to PM_1-2.5. Restricted cubic splines showed an increasing trend in asthma incidence with increasing PM_1-2.5. Sensitivity analyses showed that our model was robust.

Long-term exposure to PM_1-2.5 was positively associated with incident asthma in middle-aged and elderly individuals. Participants with a history of smoking and lower socioeconomic levels had a higher risk. More studies are warranted warrant to establish an accurate reference value of PM_1-2.5 to mitigate the growing asthma burden.