A clinical decision support system for predicting coronary artery stenosis in patients with suspected coronary heart

Jingjing Yan1, Jing Tian2, Hong Yang1

  • 1Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Diseases Risk Assessment, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.

Insights

A new machine learning system accurately identifies coronary artery stenosis in suspected coronary heart disease (CHD) patients. This non-invasive tool aids in personalized treatment, potentially reducing unnecessary invasive procedures and improving patient outcomes.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Medical Informatics
  • Machine Learning

Background:

  • Invasive coronary angiography poses risks and high costs.
  • Accurate, non-invasive, and cost-effective diagnostic methods for coronary stenosis are needed.
  • Machine learning offers a potential solution for evaluating suspected coronary heart disease (CHD).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a machine learning-based risk-prediction system for diagnosing coronary artery stenosis.
  • To provide an accurate, non-invasive, and cost-effective alternative to invasive angiography.
  • To establish a risk-assessment and management system for patient-specific intervention guidance.

Main Methods:

  • Collected electronic medical record data from 1577 suspected CHD patients.
  • Constructed and compared multiple machine learning models (XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest, NGBoost, logistic models, MLP) for multi-class classification.
  • Classified patients into three groups: normal coronary arteries, minimum stenosis (0-49%), and significant stenosis (≥50%).
  • Verified model stability using external data.

Main Results:

  • The XGBoost model exhibited superior classification performance with high ROC curves (micro-average 0.92, macro-average 0.89).
  • XGBoost achieved strong class-specific F1 scores: 0.636 (Class 0), 0.850 (Class 1), and 0.858 (Class 2).
  • The developed system effectively distinguished coronary artery stenosis and provided personalized probability estimates.

Conclusions:

  • The machine learning system accurately diagnoses coronary artery stenosis in suspected CHD patients.
  • Personalized probability curves guide individualized intervention strategies.
  • This approach may reduce invasive procedures and improve clinical decision-making and patient prognosis.

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