Risk perception and conspiracy theory endorsement predict compliance with COVID-19 public health measures

Public health measures such as spatial distancing and physical hygiene have been found effective in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus. However, there is considerable variability in individual compliance with such public health measures and factors contributing to these interindividual differences are currently still understudied. The present study set out to determine the role of risk perception and conspiracy theory endorsement on compliance with COVID-19 public health measures and explored variations in these associations across participant age and the developmental status of a country, leveraging a large multi-national data set (N = 45,772) across 66 countries/territories, collected via online survey during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and May 2020). Human Development Index (HDI), developed by the United Nations Development Program, was used as a proxy of a country's achievement in key dimensions of human development. Overall, higher risk perception was associated with greater compliance, particularly in individuals with greater conspiracy theory endorsement. Specifically, people from more developed countries who perceived themselves less at risk but showed stronger conspiracy theory endorsement reported the lowest compliance with COVID-19 public health measures. Findings from this study advance understanding of the interplay between risk perception and conspiracy theory endorsement in their effect on compliance with COVID-19 public health measures, under consideration of both individual-level and country-level demographic variables and have potential to inform the design of tailored interventions to fight the current and future global pandemics.