Predicting common bile duct stones: Comparison of SAGES, ASGE and ESGE criteria for accuracy

To determine accuracy of SAGES, ASGE and ESGE criteria for predicting presence of common bile duct (CBD) stones.

In a prospective study at Jinnah Hospital Lahore from March 2021 to February 2022, patients with suspected CBD stone were stratified in High risk (HR), intermediate risk (IR) and low risk (LR) for SAGES, ASGE and ESGE criteria. All patients underwent ERCP and risk strata were analyzed using SPSS 22® for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy.

In 90 patients with mean age 45.18(±14.87) and male/female ratio 0.64(35/55), area Under Curve (AUC) for predicting CBD stones was 0.75, 0.81and 0.83 for HR and 0.28, 0.52 and 0.52 for IR group while it was 0.53, 0.81 and 0.53 for absence of stone in LR group of SAGES, ASGE and ESGE criteria respectively. HR groups had accuracy of 81.1%, 86.7% and 87.8% in predicting CBD stone while LR criteria had 68.8%, 86.7% and 68.1% accuracy in predicting absence of CBD stone for SAGES, ASGE and ESGE respectively.

HR strata of SAGES, ASGE and ESGE scores have excellent accuracy in predicting CBD stones whereas IR and LR criteria are suboptimal for excluding CBD stones.