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Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan
Keiji Mise1, Ayako Sumi2, Shintaro Takatsuka2
1Department of Admissions and High School Liaison, Center for Medical Education, Sapporo Medical University, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8556, Japan.
Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 23, 2022
Summary
This study reveals that mean temperature is linked to mumps epidemics in Japan, influencing seasonal patterns. Mumps outbreaks show distinct 1-year and 6-month cycles correlated with temperature, not vaccine coverage.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Health
- Time-Series Analysis
Background:
- Mumps (epidemic parotitis) exhibits seasonal patterns, but the specific meteorological drivers in Japan remain unclear.
- Understanding these drivers is crucial for public health interventions and disease prediction.
- Previous studies have not fully explored the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps seasonality across Japan.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan.
- To analyze the cyclical components of mumps epidemics and their correlation with environmental variables.
- To determine the influence of temperature on mumps seasonality.
Main Methods:
- Utilized mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 Japanese prefectures (1999-2020).
- Employed time-series analysis, including spectral analysis and the least-squares method.
- Calculated contribution ratios (Q1 for 1-year cycle, Q2 for 6-month cycle) to assess amplitude contributions.
Main Results:
- Identified significant 1-year and 6-month cycles in mumps incidence across Japan.
- Observed that these cyclical patterns (Q1 and Q2) were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature.
- Found that measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage did not appear to influence the identified 1-year and 6-month mumps cycles.
- LSF curves accurately reproduced regional variations in mumps seasonality (bimodal in the north, unimodal in the south).
Conclusions:
- Mean temperature is a significant factor associated with mumps epidemic seasonality in Japan.
- The 1-year and 6-month cycles in mumps incidence are strongly linked to temperature variations.
- Findings suggest temperature plays a more direct role in mumps seasonality than vaccine coverage rates.
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