Hydrophobicity identifies false positives and false negatives in peptide-MHC binding

Major Histocompability Complex (MHC) Class I molecules allow cells to present foreign and endogenous peptides to T-Cells so that cells infected by pathogens can be identified and killed. Neural networks tools such as NetMHC-4.0 and NetMHCpan-4.1 are used to predict whether peptides will bind to variants of MHC molecules. These tools are trained on data gathered from binding affinity and eluted ligand experiments. However, these tools do not track hydrophobicity, a significant biochemical factor relevant to peptide binding, in their predictions. A previous study had concluded that the peptides predicted to bind to HLA-A*0201 by NetMHC-4.0 were much more hydrophobic than expected. This paper expands that study by also focusing on HLA-B*2705 and HLA-B*0801, which prefer binding hydrophilic and balanced peptides respectively. The correlation of hydrophobicity of 9-mer peptides with their predicted binding strengths to these various HLAs was investigated. Two studies were performed, one using the data that the two neural networks were trained on, and the other using a sample of the human proteome. NetMHC-4.0 was found to have a statistically significant bias towards predicting highly hydrophobic peptides as strong binders to HLA-A*0201 and HLA-B*2705 in both studies. Machine Learning metrics were used to identify the causes for this bias: hydrophobic false positives and hydrophilic false negatives. These results suggest that the retraining the neural networks with biochemical attributes such as hydrophobicity and better training data could increase the accuracy of their predictions. This would increase their impact in applications such as vaccine design and neoantigen identification.