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Updated: Aug 20, 2025

Predictive Immune Modeling of Solid Tumors
Published on: February 25, 2020
Maximum Somatic Allele Frequency-Adjusted Blood-Based Tumor Mutational Burden Predicts the Efficacy of Immune
Yiting Dong1, Yixiang Zhu1, Minglei Zhuo2
1State Key Laboratory of Molecular Oncology, Department of Medical Oncology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
Introduction:
Recent studies exhibited the unstable prediction ability of blood-based tumor mutational burden (bTMB) when predicting the response of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) therapy in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) abundance, usually represented by maximum somatic allele frequency (MSAF), was one possible confounding factor influencing bTMB ability in ICIs response prediction.
Methods:
MSAF-adjusted bTMB (Ma-bTMB) was established and validated in patients with advanced NSCLC among Geneplus Cancer Genome Database (GCGD, n = 1679), Zhuo (n = 35), Wang (n = 45), POPLAR (NCT01903993, n = 211) and OAK (NCT02008227, n = 642) cohorts.
Results:
MSAF demonstrated a modest positive correlation with bTMB and a negative one with survival benefit. Improved survival outcomes of ICIs therapy have been observed among patients with high-Ma-bTMB compared to those with low-Ma-bTMB in Zhuo and Wang cohorts. In addition, compared to low-Ma-bTMB, high-Ma-bTMB was associated with more positive clinical benefits from ICIs therapy than chemotherapy both in POPLAR and OAK cohorts. Further exploration suggested that Ma-bTMB could precisely identify more potential ICIs beneficiaries compared to bTMB and LAF-bTMB, complementary to PD-L1 expression.
Conclusions:
We developed Ma-bTMB, a convenient, readily available, non-invasive predictive biomarker effectively differentiates beneficiaries of ICIs therapy in advanced NSCLC, warranting future clinical trials.
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