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Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of
Jiangfu Liao1, Lina Tang2, Guofan Shao3
1Computer Engineering College, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|November 26, 2022
Summary
Urban expansion in Quanzhou significantly impacts ecological risks, with industrial priority scenarios showing a 42.5% increase in high-level risk areas. Future development should reduce urban agglomeration and guide industrial land southeastward.
Area of Science:
- Urban ecology and land-use change analysis
- Ecological risk assessment in rapidly developing regions
- Spatio-temporal modeling of environmental impacts
Background:
- Rapid urban expansion encroaches on natural habitats, causing ecological damage.
- Industrialized cities face irreversible ecological consequences from land-use change.
- Understanding urban growth drivers is crucial for mitigating ecological risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate urban expansion in Quanzhou using the PLUS model integrated with Markov chains.
- To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological risks under different development scenarios.
- To evaluate the impact of land-use change on ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with a random forest algorithm.
- Integrated Markov chains for simulating land-use change from 2005 to 2018.
- Assessed ecological risks based on ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity indicators across multiple scenarios (BAU, industrial priority, urban transformation).
Main Results:
- The PLUS model achieved high accuracy (91.77% overall accuracy, 0.878 Kappa) in simulating urban expansion.
- The industrial-priority scenario showed a 20% increase in industrial land and a 42.5% larger high-level risk area compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario.
- The urban transition scenario indicated an expansion of medium-level risk areas around Quanzhou Bay and southern regions.
Conclusions:
- Urban development goals significantly influence the spatial distribution of land use and ecological risks.
- Industrial land expansion poses a substantial threat to ecological integrity, increasing high-level risk zones.
- Future urban planning in Quanzhou should focus on reducing urban agglomeration and strategically guiding industrial development to mitigate ecological risks.
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