Statistical Approach to Estimating Audience from MAC-Randomized WiFi Probe Requests

In the past few years, the ability of wireless network operators to monitor audience using control frames emitted by client devices has been compromised, both by legislation treating client MAC addresses as private information and by the difficulty of distinguishing genuine client frames from those arising from the Internet of Things or from certain enhanced services. Here, a deterministic model, based on characteristics of human activity and on seasonal trends, is used to reveal underlying client statistics in raw MAC-randomized WiFi Probe Request data. The method proposes a candidate conversion factor, X, between probe request counts and the client population, which offers plausible predictions on real-world datasets.