APDM gait and balance measures fail to predict symptom progression rate in Parkinson's disease

Parkinson's disease (PD) results in progressively worsening gait and balance dysfunction that can be measured using computerized devices. We utilized the longitudinal database of the Parkinson's Disease Biomarker Program to determine if baseline gait and balance measures predict future rates of symptom progression. We included 230, 222, 164, and 177 PD subjects with 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of follow-up, respectively, and we defined progression as worsening of the following clinical parameters: MDS-UPDRS total score, Montreal Cognitive Assessment, PDQ-39 mobility subscale, levodopa equivalent daily dose, Schwab and England score, and global composite outcome. We developed ridge regression models to independently estimate how each gait or balance measure, or combination of measures, predicted progression. The accuracy of each ridge regression model was calculated by cross-validation in which 90% of the data were used to estimate the ridge regression model which was then tested on the 10% of data left out. While the models modestly predicted change in outcomes at the 6-month follow-up visit (accuracy in the range of 66-71%) there was no change in the outcome variables during this short follow-up (median change in MDS-UPDRS total score = 0 and change in LEDD = 0). At follow-up periods of 12, 18, and 24 months, the models failed to predict change (accuracy in the held-out sets ranged from 42 to 60%). We conclude that this set of computerized gait and balance measures performed at baseline is unlikely to help predict future disease progression in PD. Research scientists must continue to search for progression predictors to enhance the performance of disease modifying clinical trials.