Risk stratification system and visualized dynamic nomogram constructed for predicting diagnosis and prognosis in rare...

Bone metastases (BM) from malignant tumors could disrupt the balance between osteoclasts and osteoblasts and affect bone homeostasis. Malignant breast cancer (BC) is rare in male patients, and co-occurrence of BM is even rarer. Given its low incidence, there is limited research evaluating risk and prognosis. Despite the widespread application of nomograms to predict uncommon malignancies, no studies have constructed predictive models focusing on the diagnosis and prognosis of male breast cancer with bone metastases (MBCBM).

This study selected all male breast cancer patients (MBC) between 2010 and 2019 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We used simple and multivariate Logistic regression analyses to identify independent risk factors for BM in MBC patients. Then simple and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to determine the independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in MBCBM patients. We established and validated three new nomograms based on these independent factors.

A total of 4187 MBC patients were included, with 191 (4.56%) having bone metastases at the time of diagnosis. The independent risk factors of BM in MBC patients included age, tumor size, marital status, T stage, and N stage. In MBCBM patients, independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS were both age, T stage, ER status, PR status, and surgery. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed that these three nomograms could accurately predict the diagnosis and prognosis of MBCBM patients with excellent discrimination and clinical utility superior to the TNM staging system. We then established two prognostic-based risk stratification systems and three visualized dynamic nomograms that could be applied in clinical practice.

In conclusion, this study aimed to establish and validate an accurate novel nomogram to objectively predict the diagnosis and prognosis of MBCBM patients. On this basis, prognostic-based risk stratification systems and visualized dynamic nomograms were constructed to facilitate doctors and patients to quantify individual BM risk probability and survival probability to assist in personalized risk assessment and clinical decision-making.