10-Year Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Survey of Rural Communities in Southern Nigeria

The exponential rise in the prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) necessitates the introduction of strategies for early diagnosis to reduce the burden of the disease. This study assessed the prevalence of prediabetes and also determined the 10-year risk of developing T2DM in Southern Nigerian rural communities by adopting the validated Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) tool.

273 participants from 3 Southern rural communities aged 18 years and older were recruited in this cross-sectional study. Data in the FINDRISC stratification tool and Random Blood Glucose (RBG) variables were obtained for the participants. IBM SPSS version 21 was used to analyze the data with a level of significance put at p < 0.05.

The participants' mean age was 54.20±16.61 years. The prevalence of prediabetes among the study participants based on RBG was 4.8% (3.8% of males and 6.6% of females, respectively). Most of the study participants (41%) had a low risk of developing T2DM which meant that 1 in 100 participants would become diabetic in a 10-year period, based on the FINDRISC scale. Amongst the male participants, the Total Diabetes Risk Score (TDRS) showed significant positive correlation with the RBG (r=0.315, p=0.001); similarly, a weak positive correlation between TDRS and RBG was noted among female participants.

The propensity of developing T2DM in 10 years was indisputably low amongst rural dwellers in the Southern Nigerian rural communities studied. Further studies to compare the risk of developing T2DM between rural and urban communities would be required.