Bayesian Estimation of Human Population Toxicokinetics of PFOA, PFOS, PFHxS, and PFNA from Studies of Contaminated...

Setting health-protective standards for poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure requires estimates of their population toxicokinetics, but existing studies have reported widely varying PFAS half-lives (T_½) and volumes of distribution (V_d).

We combined data from multiple studies to develop harmonized estimates of T_½ and V_d, along with their interindividual variability, for four PFAS commonly found in drinking water: perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS).

We identified published data on PFAS concentrations in human serum with corresponding drinking water measurements, separated into training and testing data sets. We fit training data sets to a one-compartment model incorporating interindividual variability, time-dependent drinking water concentrations, and background exposures. Use of a hierarchical Bayesian approach allowed us to incorporate informative priors at the population level, as well as at the study level. We compared posterior predictions to testing data sets to evaluate model performance.

Posterior median (95% CI) estimates of T_½ (in years) for the population geometric mean were 3.14 (2.69, 3.73) for PFOA, 3.36 (2.52, 4.42) for PFOS, 2.35 (1.65, 3.16) for PFNA, and 8.30 (5.38, 13.5) for PFHxS, all of which were within the range of previously published values. The extensive individual-level data for PFOA allowed accurate estimation of population variability, with a population geometric standard deviation of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.73); data from other PFAS were also consistent with this degree of population variability. V_d estimates ranged from 0.19 to $$ across the four PFAS, which tended to be slightly higher than previously published estimates.

These results have direct application in both risk assessment (quantitative interspecies extrapolation and uncertainty factors for interindividual variability) and risk communication (interpretation of monitoring data). In addition, this study provides a rigorous methodology for further refinement with additional data, as well as application to other PFAS. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10103.