Handgun Divestment and Risk of Suicide

Firearm ownership is strongly related to suicide risk, yet little is known about how much risk declines when ownership ends ("divestment").

Using data from 523,182 handgun owners, we estimated the effect of divesting and remaining divested versus never divesting on the risk of suicide and firearm-specific suicide. We used pooled logistic regression with inverse probability weighting, adjusting for demographic and area-level measures.

The 5-year risk of suicide death was 25.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15.1, 37.2) per 10,000 persons with divestment and 15.2 (95% CI = 13.2, 17.3) per 10,000 persons with no divestment, corresponding to a risk difference of 10.4 (95% CI = 0.7, 21.1) per 10,000 persons. The 5-year risk of firearm-specific suicide death was 6.3 (95% CI = 1.4, 11.9) per 10,000 persons with divestment and 12.9 (95% CI = 11.0, 14.6) per 10,000 persons with no divestment, corresponding to a risk difference of -6.6 (95% CI = -11.4, -0.1) per 10,000 persons. Comparing divestment to no divestment, risks were elevated for deaths due to other causes proposed as negative control outcomes; we incorporated these estimates into a series of bias derivations to better understand the magnitude of unmeasured confounding.

Collectively, these estimates suggest that divestment reduces firearm suicide risk by 50% or more and likely reduces overall suicide risk as well, although future data collection is needed to fully understand the extent of biases such as unmeasured confounding.