[Epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guangdong province from 2016 to 2020]

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Guangdong province from 2016 to 2020 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of pulmonary TB. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence data of pulmonary TB reported in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. Dynamic geometric series averaging and circular distribution methods were used to reveal the epidemic pattern. Results: A total of 356 748 pulmonary TB cases were reported in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. The reported incidence of pulmonary TB decreased from 71.82/100 000 to 50.40/100 000 (trend χ²=6 905.57,P<0.001) , with an annual decline rate of 8.47%. Results from the circular distribution methods showed that the incidence peak would occur on May 4^th-5^th (Z=1 176.96,P<0.05), and the incidence was relatively higher in May compared with other months. The area distribution of the pulmonary TB epidemic was uneven, and the reported average annual incidence was in the order of the eastern area (72.15/100 000), the northern area (68.14/100 000), the western area (65.31/100 000) and the Pearl River Delta area (60.05/100 000). Results of dynamic geometric series averaging analysis showed a declining trend in the reported incidence of pulmonary TB in all areas, except Dongguan, with the average growth rate less than 0.00. The decline rate in the eastern area (-10.90%) and northern area (-10.63%) was higher than the provincial average (-8.47%). The male to female ratio of the cases was 2.63∶1 (258 562∶98 186). The reported average annual pulmonary TB incidence in men (88.37/100 000) was higher than that in women (36.86/100 000), the difference was significant (χ²=75.19, P<0.001). The reported incidence of pulmonary TB generally increased with age (trendχ²=123 849.44, P<0.001), and reached peak in age group ≥65 years (164.54/100 000). Dynamic geometric series averaging analysis showed an increasing trend of the reported pulmonary TB incidence in age groups 5-14 years and 15-24 years, with the average growth rate of 0.05% and 3.60%. Conclusions: The reported annual incidence of pulmonary TB showed a declining trend year by year in Guangdong from 2016 to 2020. However, an increasing incidence was reported in children and adolescents. Active case finding should be strengthened in the elderly and other key populations. With comprehensive TB prevention and control measures, it is still necessary to pay attention to the prevention and control of pulmonary TB in men, low-income groups and less developed areas in Guangdong and strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control in winter and spring.