[Predictive value of hemoglobin glycation index for chronic kidney disease]

Objective: To investigate the influence of hemoglobin glycation index (HGI) on the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CDK) among nondiabetic patients. Methods: Prospective cohort study. At baseline, a total of 7 407 nondiabetic patients without a history of CKD from Pingguoyuan Community of the Shijingshan District in Beijing were included from December 2011 to August 2012, who were then divided into three groups according to the tertiles of their baseline HGI levels. The CKD incidence rate was compared among the different HGI groups at last follow-up. Cox multivariable regression was applied to evaluate whether HGI measures predicted CKD risk. Test for trend across tertiles were examined using ordinal values in separate models. Results: The mean age of the subjects was (56.4±7.5) years, and 4 933 (66.6%) were female. At mean follow-up of 3.23 years, 107 (1.4%) individuals developed CKD. The incidence of CKD was gradually increasing from the low to high HGI groups [1.1% (28/2 473) vs. 1.2% (31/2 564) vs. 2.0% (48/2 370), P=0.016]. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, after adjustment for potential confounders, the high HGI group had a 68.5% increased risk of CKD compared with the low HGI group (HR=1.685, 95%CI 1.023 to 2.774). CKD risk increased with increasing HGI tertiles (P for trend=0.028). Conclusion: High HGI is associated with an increased risk for CKD in the nondiabetic population, indicating that HGI may help identify individuals at high risk for CKD.