Considerations when using nutrient inventories to prioritize water quality improvement efforts across the US

Ongoing water quality degradation tied to nitrogen and phosphorus pollution results in significant economic damages by diminishing the recreational value of surface water and compromising fisheries. Progress in decreasing nitrogen and phosphorus pollution to surface water over the past two decades has been slow. Limited resources need to be leveraged efficiently and effectively to prioritize watersheds for restoration. Leveraging recent nitrogen and phosphorus inventories for the years 2002, 2007, and 2012, we extracted relevant flux and demand terms to help identify US subbasins that are likely contributing a disproportionate amount of point and non-point source nutrient pollution to surface water by exploring the mean spatial distribution of terrestrial anthropogenic surplus, agricultural surplus, agricultural nutrient use efficiency, and point source loads. A small proportion of the landscape, <25% of subbasin area of the United States, contains 50% of anthropogenic and agriculture nitrogen and phosphorus surplus while only 2% of landscape contributes >50% of point source loads into surface water. Point source loads are mainly concentrated in urban areas across the country with point source loading rates often exceeding >10.0 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 and >1.0 kg P ha^-1 yr^-1. However, the ability for future upgrades to wastewater treatment plant infrastructure alone is unlikely to drive further improvement in water quality, outside of local water ways, since point source loads only account for ~4% of anthropogenic N and P surplus. As such, further progress in boosting nutrient use efficiency in agricultural production, usually lowest in areas of intensive livestock production, would likely contribute to the biggest gains to water quality restoration goals. This analysis and the corresponding database integrate multiple streams of information to highlight areas where N and P are being managed inefficiently to give decision makers a succinct platform to identify likely areas and sources of water quality degradation.